Survivorship bias - a logic error.

and Q is for Quince and P is for Polyphenols, ;-)

There have been some examples shared online of schoolwork that the teacher marked ‘wrong’ but was actually correct - just not exactly worded as the teacher was looking for.

A reply shared a history example of Survivorship bias, a logic error where survivors are looked at

Looking at the pattern of bullet holes on the planes that did make it back to base during WWII is educational. The military saw the pattern and thought it meant that airplanes should get bullet proof reinforcing on the areas of the planes that were covered in bullet holes … but what are odds that the other areas of the airplanes had never received a single bullet? …. Zero. The odds are zero that no bullets hit airplanes on the areas not marked in the photo with red dots (representing locations with a bullet hole on an airplane that made it back to base).

Survivorship bias, (Wikipedia), via (x.com/Silent_Scre4mer).

A Hungarian-born Jewish mathematician named Abraham Wald pointed out the military’s logic error.

“This phenomenon is called survivorship bias, a logic error where you focus on things that survived when you should really be looking at things that didn’t.” (Wikipedia), via (x.com/Silent_Scre4mer)

If all of the airplanes that crashed could have been examined before they crashed, what kind of pattern of bullet holes might have been seen? Randomness suggests that all of the white areas on the airplane graphic are the critically vulnerable spots on a WWII airplane. Airplanes did not make it back with bullet holes in the engines, narrow part of the tail, or the area of the wings with gasoline storage, or in the cockpit or gunner seat (*I am not sure of the names of the airplane parts).

Abraham Wald told the military they needed to reinforce the areas of the airplanes that didn’t have bullet holes - those planes didn’t make it back to base alive, meaning it crashed.

Survivorship bias in the Covid era

If we look at the “CoV” era from the perspective of survivorship bias, then we are seeing that nicotine users survived unexpectedly and top athletes of all ages have been dying unexpectedly. That turns standard “health advice” on its head.

1. Why is smoking tobacco not the health risk it was expected to be during CoV era

2. …and why is being a top athlete (of any age) suddenly now a major health risk instead of it being health promoting?

Answer 1: Nicotine protects cholinergic function from a toxin that can inhibit nAChR and mAChR cholinergic receptors.

Answer 2: Myokines are produced which are inflammatory like a cytokine storm. Adequate vitamin C and polyphenols can help the body to tamp down the myokine reaction after strenuous exercise. A more moderate pace and taking breaks to cool down, would likely help reduce the amount of myokine production by weary muscles.

…. I have a bunch of posts regarding the nicotine question and some on the myokine/top athlete issue.

• Somewhat related video, click through for a covert interview with Gavin O’Blennis, a CIA Contracting Officer who is describing how the CIA version of entrapment works, except he doesn’t want to admit to them using entrapment. He uses a euphemism - they “nudge” someone until the person snaps and does something strange. Those who are undesirable to the favored narrative are “nudged” into an entrapping situation of some sort which seems to be their own fault. (x.com/iluminatibot)

Nicotine (and caffeine) to support cholinergic function

Nicotine is protective because the chimeric spike is causing cholinergic dysfunction. The chimeric spike has paralysis-like effects on many important pathways of physiology and thinking/cognition. The increase in myocarditis and miscarriage rates are likely related to cholinergic dysfunction. Bowel symptoms of ongoing colitis would also likely involve the inhibition of nAChr and mAChR cholinergic receptors.

Coffee would also be health protective in that case because it inhibits and enzyme that breaks down acetylcholine. Eating egg yolks would be protective as a rich source of choline.

Dr. Tau Braun and then later Brian Ardis have both brought up the need for cholinergic protection to combat chimeric spike illness, however, the mainstream media and medical system have continued to discuss the presence of snake venom like toxic effects in the chimeric spike as a wacky/tinfoil theory.

Myokine excess post exercise and polyphenols

No one but me has been discussing myokine excess as the reason for top athletes to be dropping dead at a far greater rate than average people who got the CoV jabs. Which is sad, as the solution is simple — preload before exercise with polyphenols and vitamin C and the body’s immune response will be better controlled. Immune function is restored more rapidly in top athletes given polyphenols before or shortly after the period of intense exercise.

What are polyphenols? See the infographic/poster after the coloring pages about Quince fruit.

…Berries, of any edible type, broccoli, citrus or pomegranate peel or fruit, apples, pears, plums, mango, turnips, onions, shiitake mushrooms, wakame seaweed, dark chocolate, leeks, leafy greens, nasturtium leaves or flowers, slippery elm powder, yarrow powder, skullcap tea, dark coffee, green or black tea, red wine, ale, stout or lager beers, etcetera, etcetera.

At the request of a member of my Telegram chat group, I have combined my two-page infographic into a one-sided poster and I have a few 18 by 24 inch copies on the way, printed on glossy poster paper (rather than more expensive art print paper). It prompted me to change all the fonts to quite a bit bigger, but that would lose the point of it being a reference graphic.

Disclaimer: This information is being provided for educational purposes within the guidelines of Fair Use and is not intended to provide individual health care guidance.